Published research usually asks you to trust the numbers. Here you don't have to.
Below are the headline results from three of our papers. Each is either re-run live, in your
browser session, through the same code that produced it — or shown with its published source
and an explicit status saying exactly what cannot yet be recomputed.
contacting the live engine…
The rule on this page. Every claim is either regenerated live through the same code
that produced it, or shown with its published source and an explicit status — nothing here
is simulated. Where the compute engine does not yet expose a method, we say so plainly and link
the paper rather than invent a live number. Two of the three results below recompute live on each
page load: the Scale-Ordered Contagion profile on real G20 data, and the contagion-channel
attribution, which the engine runs through the paper's own published
contagionchannels package — so the published and live numbers are identical by
construction. Only the systemic-risk index (MCPFM) remains pending, shown from its paper with an
honest "live regeneration pending" status until its method is registered in the engine.
regenerated live by the engine published result · live regeneration pending
USA → India: tail spillover by time-scale live regeneration
SOCH · arXiv:2606.04113 · directed wavelet-quantile transfer entropy at the 5% tail, across 4 wavelet scales (d1≈2–4 days → d4≈16–32 days). Method: soch_profile · the published sochcontagion package, run live.
Published — Bhandari & Parida (2026)
0.0391
4-scale agg
0.0426
5-scale agg (paper)
d4
peak scale
The paper reports a 5-scale profile (0.0155, 0.0425, 0.0491, 0.0494, 0.0567) across d1–d5, aggregate 0.0426. The live engine decomposes to 4 scales (d1–d4), aggregate 0.0391. The whole difference is the d5 (32–64 day) band — the per-scale d1–d4 values match exactly.
Regenerated live
running on the live engine…
—
4-scale agg
—
peak scale
Try another pair:→
SOCH-A · Ordering
The profile peaks at a coarser scale when the slower market is involved.
✓ p = 0.042
SOCH-B · Shape symmetry
The profile's shape is direction-symmetric even when its level is not.
✓ 28 / 28 pairs (p>0.05)
SOCH-C · Level asymmetry
The overall level is directionally asymmetric (connectivity × shock).
p = 0.105 (n.s.)
The USA→India panel above is the live, single-pair proof. The full 28-pair shape-symmetry battery (block-bootstrap) is the paper's heavier computation, available in the package; it is not run on page load.
Systemic Risk Index: crisis early-warning live regeneration pending
MCPFM · arXiv:2507.08065 · the equilibrium-derived Systemic Risk Index (SRI) discriminating crisis from non-crisis days. Validation: ten major U.S. equities, 2010–2024, COVID-19 crash as natural experiment.
Published — Bhandari (2026)
SRI0.915
VIX0.947
0.915
SRI AUC
1 day
SRI lead time
0.947
VIX AUC
The SRI achieves AUC = 0.915 (excellent crisis discrimination). It sits modestly below the VIX benchmark (AUC 0.947, gap −3.4%) but warns earlier — 1-day lead vs the VIX's 2 days, with peak detection on 10 Mar 2020, one day before the WHO pandemic declaration.
Live regeneration
No systemic-risk-index method is registered in the compute engine yet, so this result is not recomputed here. It is shown above from the paper. We will not fabricate a live number — when the SRI method is registered, this panel will recompute the AUC on the live engine, exactly as the SOCH profile does above.
—
live AUC
Tier G
method status
◷ Live regeneration available once the systemic-risk method is registered (Tier G). Until then, the figure above is the published result, not a live value.
Companion theory: Nash-equilibrium existence (Theorem 7.2) and the trust-update law drive the SRI. Paper: arXiv:2507.08065.
Contagion channel attribution live regeneration
contagion-channels · arXiv:2604.26546 · each significant directional contagion link attributed to one of five mutually-exclusive transmission channels via IV/2SLS + LASSO + local projections + heteroskedasticity-based ID. 18 G20 markets, eight crisis sub-periods, 2006–2026. Method: channel_attribution — the engine runs the paper's own published contagionchannels package, reproducing Table 5 to 0.000 pp.
Published — Bhandari, Parida & Sahu (2026)
5
channels
8
crisis episodes
0.033
edge threshold
Dominant channel per episode (% of attributed links, Table 5). Financial frictions dominate the Pre-Crisis baseline and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Trade leads the GFC; the monetary-policy channel leads three later episodes. GFC and COVID are flagged exploratory (Sargan over-identification rejection) and marked * — their shares are descriptive, not identified. These are the paper's point estimates; the engine emits the same point shares (no confidence intervals are invented here).
Regenerated live
running channel attribution on the live engine…
Paper: arXiv:2604.26546 — Bhandari, Parida & Sahu (2026), an arXiv preprint (econ.GN). Because the engine executes the paper's own published contagionchannels code, the live column is identical to the published Table 5 by construction.
Real data · real engine · honest about its limits.
The live SOCH profile and the contagion-channel attribution are computed by the sandboxed compute engine at
shssm-compute…run.app on the bundled G20 daily-returns panel (18 markets, 2006–2026);
channel attribution runs the paper's own published contagionchannels package, so it reproduces Table 5 exactly.
Only the MCPFM systemic-risk index is shown from its paper with an explicit "live regeneration pending (Tier G)" status — it is not simulated and not a substitute live value.
Papers: SOCH (2606.04113) ·
MCPFM (2507.08065) ·
contagion-channels (2604.26546).
Code: sochcontagion ·
contagionchannels (GPL-3) ·
install from r-universe ·
explore every registered method in the Workbench.